Monday, July 20, 2026 — Oil slides on Iran ceasefire proposal, credit spreads are asleep, and NVDA/AMD both catch a bid.

Mediators floated a 10-day Iran-US truce to save the interim deal. Crude dipped below $87 but the Houthi blockade on Saudi keeps a floor under it. Credit markets are dangerously complacent. BBB OAS at 0.96bp, high yield at 2.71bp. No fear priced in while the US bombs Iran for a ninth straight night. The issue is, Trump says Putin is ready for a Ukraine peace deal while simultaneously hosting North Korean officials. A lot of geopolitical plates spinning. Watch China’s magnet exports to the US — down 20% despite the trade truce. The EV supply chain squeeze in lithium and cobalt is the real story, not tariffs. NVDA +1.4% on Vera Rubin efficiency claims — needs one-quarter the GPUs of Blackwell for post-training. AMD +3.7% on the Microsoft Helios win. The bull case for AMD is literally just “NVDA fails.”

Mediators floated a 10-day Iran-US truce to save the interim deal. Crude dipped below $87 but the Houthi blockade on Saudi keeps a floor under it.