Friday, July 17, 2026

The three stories that matter: US-Iran strikes keep escalating even as Trump talks peace. Apple steals the market cap crown from NVDA as the chip selloff bites. Credit spreads are asleep at the wheel — HY OAS at 2.71bp is pricing in zero stress. Geopolitics: The US is expanding bombing runs on Iran while Trump says a deal is still possible. The issue is, markets are treating this as noise, not a supply shock. Watch crude — if Hormuz gets spicy, that changes fast. Tech/AI: Apple passed NVDA as the world’s biggest company. Not because Apple crushed it — because chips sold off. NVDA down bad enough that one desk says it can still rally 140% to $500. That’s a hell of a call. Tech/AI 2: The Vera CPU story is interesting. Not just a sidekick to the GPU roadmap. If Vera delivers, it changes the architecture conversation for NVDA’s next leg. Not sure people appreciate this yet. Macro/Rates: 10-year yield at 4.54%, real yields holding at 2.32%. The bond market is calm. Too calm. HY OAS at 2

The three stories that matter: US-Iran strikes keep escalating even as Trump talks peace. Apple steals the market cap crown from NVDA as the chip selloff bites. Credit spreads are asleep at the wheel — HY OAS at 2.71bp is pricing in zero stress.