Tuesday, July 14, 2026 — US-Iran ceasefire collapses, Americans brace for prolonged war. Consumer prices fall for first time since early COVID. TSMC posts 36% revenue jump as AI demand booms but US ti

Geopolitics: Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa airport break truce, US intensifies strikes on Iran. Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Americans expect a long war. Oil supply risk is underpriced — not sure people appreciate that. Tech/AI: NVDA slashed its approved Asia customer base as the US chokes off H200 shipments to China. Meanwhile TSMC just delivered a monster quarter. Good signal for global AI buildout, bad signal for China access. $NVDA $TSM Macro/Rates: Headline CPI fell for the first time since early COVID, yet real yields are flat at 2.31%, breakevens steady at 2.26%. Chicago Fed financial conditions index at -0.515 — still easy money. Kalshi gives just a 20.5% chance of fed funds above 3.75% after the July meeting. The market thinks the Fed can stay dovish. Fixed income: BBB credit spreads at 0.96 bp, high yield at 2.69 bp. Tight as a drum. Nobody is pricing in a geopolitical shock to corporate balance sheets. Watch this. So what? A shooting war that could disrupt crude, falling inflati

Geopolitics: Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa airport break truce, US intensifies strikes on Iran. Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Americans expect a long war. Oil supply risk is underpriced — not sure people appreciate that.