Monday, July 13, 2026 — US and Iran trade direct strikes, ceasefire cracking. TSMC June rev +68% y/y, Q2 beat. Futures sliding as geopolitics crashes into earnings week.

The US-Iran ceasefire looks dead. Both sides exchanging fire. Oil not fully repriced yet — watch crude. China’s next move is the real key to supply chains. TSMC is a monster. Q2 rev +36% beat, adding two packaging plants. Not sure people appreciate how tight advanced chip capacity still is — that’s a moat for $NVDA. Q2 earnings week just got spicy. Futures down pre-market. The issue is, if Iran blows up, all that soft-landing talk evaporates. Guidance will matter more than the prints. Credit tightening flicker: Chicago Fed index rose 4%, now -0.515. Real yields steady 2.31%, 10Y 4.54%. Market only pricing 20% chance Fed stays above 3.75% late July. Good signal — no rate panic yet. Oil prices likely rising if truce frays further. Not seeing it fully in futures yet but watch Brent. Commodities could be the real tell this week.

The US-Iran ceasefire looks dead. Both sides exchanging fire. Oil not fully repriced yet — watch crude. China’s next move is the real key to supply chains.