July 06, 2026: NVDA takes gloves off with Nemotron, refutes delay, enters $200B market. Q2 earnings kick off, Fed minutes loom. Iran peace deal turns ugly with funeral threats.

Geopolitics: US-Iran deal – “Khamenei killers will not die a natural death.” Ukraine resilience pushes Russia toward truce. Israel airstrike in Gaza, ceasefire talks stagger on. Tech/AI: NVDA rising on Blackwell Ultra, Claude models. Jensen’s anti-ASICS alliance gets a downgrade. Analysts split – $NVDA $AMD $MU in focus. A $200B new market and history says more upside. Macro: 10Y at 4.48%, real yield 2.25%. Credit OAS near zero (HY 2.74bp, BBB 0.94bp). Fed minutes and Q2 earnings will test the everything-is-fine trade. Rotation: DeVere CEO warns MEGA-rotation could be biggest since post-pandemic. If yields keep climbing, growth-to-value switch accelerates. So what: This week is about earnings proving AI spend, Fed minutes testing rate-cut hopes, and whether NVDA’s Nemotron move justifies the premium or triggers the rotation. Tighten stops. Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70): $ALL — +1.7% vs Financial Services (6m), confidence 99 $FDX — +1.6% vs Industrials (6m), confidence 99 $A

Geopolitics: US-Iran deal – “Khamenei killers will not die a natural death.” Ukraine resilience pushes Russia toward truce. Israel airstrike in Gaza, ceasefire talks stagger on.