Friday, July 03, 2026 — Iran’s supreme leader funeral begins, Hormuz transits tick up as ceasefire holds. Gold heads for first weekly gain in a month as rate-hike bets fade. Kalshi traders price in a

Geopolitics: The Iran ceasefire is holding, but peace talks are paused. Hormuz flows are rising — oil supply risk is quietly deflating. So goes the ceasefire, so goes the easing. Tech/AI: NVDA is pitching a double-dipping datacenter financing scheme, saying $3-4T AI capex by 2030. Stock at $194 AH — bulls call it insanely cheap. Meanwhile Trump loaded up on AAPL, NVDA before the tariff flip. Macro/Rates: 10Y yield up 6bps to 4.48%, but gold is snapping a monthlong losing streak. Breakevens flat at 2.23%. Fed balance sheet expanded $31B this week — reserve balances swung by $115B then $47B. Liquidity rollercoaster. China/HK: Beijing talks capital controls easing with Indonesia. NDRC meets Jakarta’s coordinating minister — small step, big signal for yuan convertibility if it ever gets serious. So what? This week was a waiting game. Iran tensions cooled just enough. Gold caught a bid as rate fears ebbed. Nvidia still selling the AI dream. But it all hinges on today’s payrolls — if Kal

Geopolitics: The Iran ceasefire is holding, but peace talks are paused. Hormuz flows are rising — oil supply risk is quietly deflating. So goes the ceasefire, so goes the easing.