What changed
Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Dow closes above 52k for the first time as the US-Iran truce holds. AI boom seen powering 22% S&P 500 earnings growth this quarter, per Wells Fargo. AMD keeps crushing NVDA in 2026, and a billionaire just bought 196k AVGO shares after selling NVDA too early.
Geopolitics: US envoys arrive in Qatar but Iran peace talks progress is in doubt. China calls for a lasting Gaza ceasefire at the UN. Oil climbs alongside global stocks, eyes on the interim deal.
Tech/AI: AMD's rally vs NVDA is the trade of the year. NVDA fights back with Project Groot for humanoid robots. Rotation thesis picks up steam — AVGO, MU, AAPL in play.
Macro/Rates: Chicago Fed financial conditions hit -0.52, easiest in years. 10Y breakeven inflation ticks up to 2.22%. HY OAS stays at 2.80bp — credit markets are yawning.
China/HK: Headline PMI looks stronger but domestic demand is sputtering. ING flags a worrying divergence — the China engine is running on fumes.
So what? Records and rotations.