Oct 7, 2026 US midday: Oil above $100 and the 30Y Treasury yield back at 2002/24-year highs are smashing equities; Hormuz tanker attacks hit their worst week since the Iran war; $NVDA's $40B SpaceX GP

Geopolitics is getting messier: tanker attacks in Hormuz at the highest weekly pace since the Iran war started, Trump putting a $6.6B American taxpayer stake in a submarine deal, and Michigan GOP's Rogers breaking with Trump to end the Canada tariff fight. Watch headlines, not just oil. Rates are the wrecking ball: 30-year Treasury yield climbed back to a 2002 high—24-year high—while stocks tumble. Kalshi says 98.5% odds CPI tops 3.3% for Sep 2026, 62.5% odds fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after Mar 2027, and only 12% odds October payrolls top 125k. Sticky inflation + higher long yields = bad mix. AI capex is still monstrous: up 116% YoY with S&P 500 Q3 earnings poised to rise 27% to a record. $APO and banks are in talks to finance SpaceX's $40B $NVDA GPU purchase. But $NVDA director Mark Stevens led AI insider selling in Q3—good demand signal, bad insider signal. Corporate tape is split: $STZ Q2 beat on beer and wine growth, $VAL added $220M to backlog, but $FICO is cutting ~15%

Geopolitics is getting messier: tanker attacks in Hormuz at the highest weekly pace since the Iran war started, Trump putting a $6.6B American taxpayer stake in a submarine deal, and Michigan GOP's Ro