OCT 5, 2026: Q3 earnings kick off with Treasury yields high; NVDA gets BNP target hikes into $6T chatter while INTC -4% on TSMC/Musk Terafab talks; Sept composite PMI holds at 58.4.

The macro knot: PMI 58.4 is hot, yields are high, Dow futures slip, and Truist's TFC preview says "when rates go boom." Prediction markets price 61.5% odds Fed upper bound >3.75% after Mar 2027, but only 11% odds October payrolls top 125k. Sticky rates, weak jobs — watch this. NVDA is the AI tape: BNP raises targets, options traders map $6T, Cerebras fights for inference share, and a $20B Groq deal lawsuit alleges stockholders got shortchanged. AI demand is still the bid; legal/competitive noise is the risk. INTC sinks 4% as TSMC enters talks to join Musk's Terafab chip venture. That's a double signal: Musk's fab gets foundry credibility, Intel's foundry narrative gets another hit. Watch INTC and TSMC. Energy is quietly leading: Chevron promotes CFO to head oil and gas ahead of CEO succession, CVX eyes all-time highs as oil surges, crude is bouncing, and Trump's diesel export coercion is a wildcard. Good signal for energy bulls. Q3 earnings start into a yield surge. Alphabet, Micron, N

The macro knot: PMI 58.4 is hot, yields are high, Dow futures slip, and Truist's TFC preview says "when rates go boom." Prediction markets price 61.5% odds Fed upper bound >3.75% after Mar 2027, but o