Friday, October 02, 2026: September payrolls +29k, unemployment 4.2%; Dow +400, Nasdaq record; G7 to release up to 100M barrels emergency oil/diesel; China state-backed firm financed restricted $NVDA

Macro/rates: payrolls +29k, unemployment 4.2%; 10Y yield 5.212%, 10Y-2Y 38.7bp, 10Y-3M 112.2bp. AI is quietly driving Treasury yields higher while jobs cool. Prediction markets: CPI >3.4% at 93.5%, only 11.5% odds of >125k October payrolls. Stagflation-ish, not clean dovish. Tech/AI: $GOOGL's TPU threat to $NVDA is real, but China's token resellers are running an Anthropic gray market and a Chinese state-backed firm financed restricted Nvidia chips. Anthropic warns US gov actions could hurt commercial customer relationships. $TSM valuation debate is back. Corporate: top movers Friday include $NKE, $SYNA, $STX, $NVDA. $LYFT opened an 80,000-sq-ft Tennessee facility — not a data center, so don't confuse it with AI capex. Cerebras upgraded to Buy after its slump. Geopolitics/regulation: EU commission says Meta's US child-safety measures may be insufficient. $META regulatory risk is global now. Trump vs Europe on emergency diesel stocks adds another energy-policy wildcard. Commodities: G7

Macro/rates: payrolls +29k, unemployment 4.2%; 10Y yield 5.212%, 10Y-2Y 38.7bp, 10Y-3M 112.2bp. AI is quietly driving Treasury yields higher while jobs cool. Prediction markets: CPI >3.4% at 93.5%, on