Thursday, October 01, 2026: 10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002, Nvidia's AI-financing trade gets a Wall Street reality check, and Chinese refiners reportedly ban October fuel exports as oi

10-year Treasury yield at highest since 2002. Wall Street dips as yields outweigh software gains. Prediction markets: 71% odds Fed upper bound >3.75% after Mar 2027, 97.5% odds Sep CPI >3.2%, only 30% odds Sep payrolls >125k. Strong jobs headlines, sticky inflation, no duration bid. Watch this. Nvidia's bet that its chips can finance the AI boom gets a reality check. Analyst calls still hit NVDA, AAPL, NFLX, MU, AMZN, META, TOL. Jensen Huang privately confronted Anthropic's Dario Amodei over AI safety warnings. AI capex is now a credit-market trade. Higher yields are the enemy. TSMC weighs a new multibillion-dollar chip campus in Texas. America buys AI, Asia reaps the rewards. Good signal for US onshoring headlines; bad signal for anyone thinking the AI supply chain de-risks fast. Watch TSMC capex and Texas incentives. Chinese refiners reportedly banned fuel exports in October. Oil prices are rising again. That's a product-market squeeze, not just crude. With 10Y yields at 2002 highs,

10-year Treasury yield at highest since 2002. Wall Street dips as yields outweigh software gains. Prediction markets: 71% odds Fed upper bound >3.75% after Mar 2027, 97.5% odds Sep CPI >3.2%, only 30%