What changed
Iran offers a 60-day ceasefire as Hormuz tensions stay high; energy prices are already rising. China confirmed first AI talks with the U.S. and extended the trade truce to January. If Hormuz premium fades, crude gives back; if not, sticky inflation meets a 6% yield tail.
The 10Y Treasury yield is at its highest since 2007. 5% yields lost shock value and investors now worry about 6%. Kalshi says 84.5% odds the fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after March 2027, only 25.5% odds September payrolls top 125k, and just 2% odds September CPI tops 3.9%. Bond market is the tape.
ASML and TSMC advancing large-format EUV photomasks is a real supply-chain tell. Nvidia is still the biggest AI hardware opportunity per 24/7 Wall St. Analyst calls are crowding into Nvidia, SpaceX, Meta, CoreWeave, Tesla. Good signal for compute demand, bad signal for anyone short capex.
Oracle invoked force majeure to shield itself from New Mexico AI data-center cost overruns. ORCL -5%. If the AI buildout's chief v