Friday, September 11, 2026: Oil eased and inflation came in near expectations—Dow +500. $HPE +9.3% on AI infrastructure momentum. But the Fed still has hike risk on the table.

The AI trade is still $NVDA's, but Qualcomm's AWS deal is the first real attempt to chip at that moat—just read the fine print. Jensen doubled down on his 2030 call, and the next memory-heavy phase should be good for $MU and SanDisk. $HPE's +9.3% pop is a small-cap AI infrastructure signal. The issue is capex cycle sustainability—watch what $MSFT and $AVGO say about order books and AI spend. $AAPL remains the AI laggard. Macro is the risk under the rally: four rate hikes still loom despite surprise growth, and Fed messaging is uncertain. With KXFed odds near 20% for upper bound above 3.75%, a hawkish shift would wreck this bounce. Oil supply is not solved: Houthis seized a Red Sea island threatening another route, Iran wants Saudi to end the Yemen blockade, and the US-Venezuela deal is the only real release valve. AI security turned kinetic: Anthropic says Iran used its American AI model to target U.S. Navy warships. That plus AI self-improvement fears means regulation and export contr

The AI trade is still $NVDA's, but Qualcomm's AWS deal is the first real attempt to chip at that moat—just read the fine print. Jensen doubled down on his 2030 call, and the next memory-heavy phase sh