Friday, August 28, 2026 — Warsh hawkish at Jackson Hole, 10Y 4.693%; Gulf oil exports >60% of pre-Iran war; $NVDA ecosystem still driving the tape.

Goldman says Gulf oil exports >60% of pre-Iran war level — supply normalizing, war premium fading; bearish oil, good disinflation signal for risk. Warsh signals possible rate hike, sharpens inflation warning; 10Y +2bp to 4.693%, Chicago PMI slips — hawkish Fed plus soft growth is a rough combo. $NVDA ecosystem and the 70% guide keep AI capex front and center; $AAPL market cap race is the Q3 battleground; $ADSK AI, MaintainX, higher outlook adds software confirmation. UAE official holds biggest stake in Trump family crypto bank, investors in Trump crypto ventures $4.7B underwater; Trump vows breakup of food processing monopoly — regulatory headline risk is waking up. $BYD profit rises first time in five quarters on export boost — exports are the release valve for China EV price war; watch EU tariff response. Managed money copper net long at 93rd percentile 3Y — extreme. $HG crowded; hawkish Fed plus stronger dollar is a fast-unwind setup. This week adds up to hawkish Fed, recovering Gul

Goldman says Gulf oil exports >60% of pre-Iran war level — supply normalizing, war premium fading; bearish oil, good disinflation signal for risk.