What changed
Bessent and Warsh go down Jackson Hole with $1T Treasury firepower talk, but prediction markets are doubtful buybacks push yields lower — that’s the credibility test.
$NVDA reports this week, Wedbush says likely exceed guidance again only supply-limited; Groq racks online this year after $20B purchase, watch key levels.
Michael Burry is shorting $NVDA into earnings — not sure people appreciate the signal when the bull case is supply constraints, not demand.
Japan Nikkei edges lower as AI stocks slip ahead of Nvidia results, and $BTC’s next test is $80,000 as Jackson Hole looms — same macro rate anxiety.
$XPEV gives weak Q3 revenue outlook after Q2 miss — China EV demand soft, watch it as a consumer read across.
Treasury could tap its near-$1T cash account to fund bond buybacks — if yields don’t drop, the safe-haven question gets louder.
So what: Nvidia’s tape plus a Jackson Hole credibility test on Treasury intervention — if either disappoints, risk assets reprice fast.