Tuesday, August 18, 2026 — US midday check-in: Home Depot beats, 30-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high, and $NVDA backs OpenAI's Ohio data center with a $105B guarantee. That's the tape.

Trump says no Iran talks planned after the 60-day ceasefire expires; the oil supply risk premium isn't out of the tape. The 30-year Treasury yield is the big one: highest in 19 years. Gold falters, Marvell drops 6% as the long-end move swamps a bullish UBS AI note. Rates are driving semis, not fundamentals. Home Depot's Q2 beat plus Q2 e-commerce retail sales acceleration says the US consumer is hanging in; UK wage growth lags and Iran war costs are squeezing real incomes. Not a clean global consumer story. The AI trade is broader than one chip name: $AAPL and $MSFT are the mega-cap balance-sheet exposure, while $AVGO, $MU, and $AMD are the semi leverage into the same AI capex and rate move. ECB economists warn AI is driving a looming correction; hedge funds are divided on the AI bellwether into the print. Not sure people appreciate that a $500B AI buildout is now a macro liquidity story, not just chip demand. Kalshi files with CFTC for equity index perps and YieldMax's 0DTE cover

Trump says no Iran talks planned after the 60-day ceasefire expires; the oil supply risk premium isn't out of the tape.