Friday, August 07, 2026 — Payrolls shocker, Warsh rattles the cage, and gold screams. The three stories that matter.

US economy unexpectedly sheds 23K jobs in July — first negative print in a while — but unemployment rate still eases to 4.1%. Messy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reportedly prepared to support a rate *hike* in September. Not a typo. The floor just shifted. Gold up 7% in two days, 2-year yield diving, equities rallying. Someone’s wrong, or the stagflation trade is officially on. The payrolls number is bad but the internals are weird — participation drop? The issue is, Warsh sees a supply-side crisis, not a demand one. Warsh ready to hike into a negative headline jobs print. This is Volcker cosplay. Watch the 2-year yield — 45bp spread to 10Y is tightening fast.

US economy unexpectedly sheds 23K jobs in July — first negative print in a while — but unemployment rate still eases to 4.1%. Messy.