Monday, August 03, 2026 — Iran deal hopes collide with a monster macro week. Oil’s dipping, Dow’s leading, and all eyes are on ISM and payrolls.

Trump says an Iran peace deal is “imminent” and he’s “not looking to kill people.” The issue is, California diesel is still spiking and the water systems cyberattack blame game is just starting. Watch crude. Big Tech earnings just killed the “AI capex has no ROIC” thesis. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta all showed the spend is converting. This is a good signal for the whole semis complex. Nvidia gets three fresh buy calls and AMD is reportedly hiking GPU and memory prices right alongside them. Not sure people appreciate how fast pricing power is returning here. TSM just reclaimed a $2 trillion market cap and still trades at 20x forward earnings. That’s cheap for an unmatched tech lead, even with China competition fears rattling the space. American Bitcoin swings to a loss right before Eric Trump’s accumulation play faces real investor scrutiny. The Q2 call is going to be awkward.

Trump says an Iran peace deal is “imminent” and he’s “not looking to kill people.” The issue is, California diesel is still spiking and the water systems cyberattack blame game is just starting. Watch crude.