Friday, July 31, 2026 — BOJ holds but yen is the real story, Apple getting smoked on earnings, and credit markets are pricing perfection.

Apple is plunging while Amazon soars — this earnings season is separating the winners from the dead money in real time. Brutal. BOJ stood pat overnight but the weak yen is threatening their entire inflation outlook. They’re stuck and they know it. 10-year Treasury yield ticking up to 4.734% — real yields holding at 2.41%. The bond market isn’t buying a soft landing just yet. High yield OAS at 2.84bp, investment grade at 1bp. Credit spreads are screaming no fear. Either genius or complacency. OpenAI just dropped a stat: 1 billion active users, 2 million businesses. The adoption curve is vertical. Not sure people appreciate what that does to chip demand.

Apple is plunging while Amazon soars — this earnings season is separating the winners from the dead money in real time. Brutal.