Thursday, July 23, 2026 — Oil breaks $100, House votes to end Iran war, TSLA gets crushed on a delivery beat.

House just voted again to end Trump’s Iran war. Second time. The issue is, it’s symbolic until the Senate plays ball. Watch Rubio in Manila trying to revive Ukraine talks with Lavrov — good signal for risk if it sticks. Oil above $100 for the first time since May. This is the tape driver. Every inflation assumption for H2 just got upended. ECB already prepping a September hike — they’re trapped. TSLA -13.8%. Record deliveries, broken growth story. The market is saying unit volume doesn’t matter if margins are getting gutted. This is a sentiment wrecking ball for the whole EV/AI adjacency trade. BX crushed it — $1.29 vs $1.18. NDAQ beat too. The issue is, good earnings from asset managers and exchanges tell you nothing about Main Street. DOW beat by 20% on op EPS, but that’s pricing power in chemicals, not demand. NVDA down on news Moonshot AI accessed chips despite the export ban. Not sure people appreciate how much this keeps the regulatory overhang alive. AMD launching next-gen A

House just voted again to end Trump’s Iran war. Second time. The issue is, it’s symbolic until the Senate plays ball. Watch Rubio in Manila trying to revive Ukraine talks with Lavrov — good signal for risk if it sticks.