Monday, July 20, 2026 — Iran ceasefire talk drives the open, semis bounce, and credit markets are asleep at the wheel.

Mediators floated a 10-day Iran ceasefire but Pezeshkian is telling citizens it’s a “full-scale war.” Oil didn’t flinch. That’s your tell. Nvidia and chipmakers leading the bounce from Friday’s selloff. AMD dropped Helios, its first rack system, and landed Microsoft as a buyer. The fight is on. China’s top AI event message to the US: “We’re coming for you.” Not subtle. Watch how export controls get framed this week. Treasury yields ticking higher — 10Y at 4.584%, real yield 2.35%. Breakevens up too. The bond market is pricing something the ceasefire headlines aren’t. Credit spreads are a coma. BBB OAS at 0.96, high yield at 2.71. No stress, no fear. Either everyone’s hedged or no one believes the Iran story has legs.

Mediators floated a 10-day Iran ceasefire but Pezeshkian is telling citizens it’s a “full-scale war.” Oil didn’t flinch. That’s your tell.