What changed
Apple just leapfrogged Nvidia for the top market cap spot. Not on a rally — just fell less. $AAPL flat, $NVDA -3%.
The real story is the semis bleeding out. $AMD -5%, $INTC -4%, $TSM -2.2%. This isn’t profit-taking, it’s a sector rotation with teeth.
Watch the credit complex. High yield OAS at 2.71bp, BBB at 0.97bp. That’s not calm — that’s complacency. Spreads are pricing perfection while VIX charts hint at a wake-up call.
Geopolitics is the wildcard no one’s trading. U.S. and Iran still exchanging strikes but peace talks are somehow ongoing. Oil hasn’t moved. Not sure people appreciate how fast that flips.
Netflix beat on earnings but the stock fell on a revenue miss and lower guide. Good signal: growth is getting harder to pay up for. The multiple compression trade is alive and well.