Wednesday, July 15, 2026 — PPI comes in cool, ASML blows the doors off Q2 and hikes guidance, tech futures rip into lunch.

Trump pressures ICE to resume traffic stops after a halt over fatal shootings. Not a market driver right now, but watch this — midterm flashpoint that could spill into labor and immigration policy noise. Macro check: Chicago Fed NFCI at -0.538, loosest in a while. Good signal for risk appetite. But core CPI still 2.57% YoY, 10y breakevens at 2.25%, real yields ticking up to 2.36%. The easy money backdrop is wrestling with a slow grind higher in real rates. Tech fires on all cylinders: $ASML +2% on beat, guides 2026 higher. Intel is first to mass-produce with ASML’s next-gen tool. Analysts buzzing on $NVDA, $AMD, $MSFT. This is the earnings catalyst the tape needed — bar is now dangerously high. Credit is yawning: HY OAS at 2.69bp, BBB at 0.97bp. Spreads pricing in zero stress. 30-year mortgage eased to 6.49%. The issue is, if the 10-year yield keeps creeping, $VNQ breaks. Real yields up 4bp today alone — REITs on watch. Prediction markets: just 20.5% chance the Fed holds above 3.75

Trump pressures ICE to resume traffic stops after a halt over fatal shootings. Not a market driver right now, but watch this — midterm flashpoint that could spill into labor and immigration policy noise.