Monday, July 13, 2026 — Midday Check-in: US hits Iran again, ceasefire in tatters; TSMC blows out revenue; markets tense up for CPI and earnings this week.

The US is launching more strikes on Iran, and the truce is barely breathing. The oil spike many fear may hinge on China — if they keep buying Iranian crude, the supply shock gets dulled. Watch Brent. TSMC Q2 revenue +36% YoY, June alone +68%. Adding two packaging plants in Taiwan. The AI buildout is very real. Yet NVDA is still losing to the market in 2026 — that divergence is becoming a problem. 10Y yields eased to 4.54%, real yields flat at 2.31%. Credit spreads are still asleep — BBB OAS 0.94bp, HY 2.69bp. No panic there. But the Chicago Fed financial conditions index is deeply loose at -0.515. Too loose if inflation doesn’t cooperate. $SMTC got a Needham Buy reiteration, pointing to 2026–27 demand and a record backlog. Quietly, non-AI semi names are building a case. Prediction markets: 20.5% chance the Fed keeps rates above 3.75% this month. Payrolls >125k only at 30.5%. The street is pricing a very dovish backdrop — that’s a fragile setup if CPI surprises.

The US is launching more strikes on Iran, and the truce is barely breathing. The oil spike many fear may hinge on China — if they keep buying Iranian crude, the supply shock gets dulled. Watch Brent.