Wednesday, July 08, 2026 — US-Iran ceasefire collapses, oil rips, stocks give up the morning. Dow touched 53k for the first time then reversed on Trump’s “hit them hard tonight” threat. In semis, Perp

Iran is hitting commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump says the ceasefire is “over.” Crude flying, defense names bid. Watch for overnight strikes—this tape isn’t priced for a hot Gulf. China fires an SLBM test that Asahi Shimbun calls “inflaming regional tensions.” Not sure people appreciate how this layers on top of Iran—quietly raising the geopolitical temperature while everyone stares at Hormuz. Interesting split in tech/AI. Perplexity says $NVDA’s Vera CPU is a “dead-on fit” for agentic coding, 1.5x faster. Same day Michael Burry reveals shorts against $NVDA, $MU, $AMD. Good signal vs bad signal on the AI capex story. Macro is too comfortable. Chicago Fed NFCI at -0.515, BBB OAS still 0.94bp—that’s basically zero stress. That’s not pricing a broken ceasefire or missiles in the Gulf. If Iran retaliates tonight, credit gaps hard. So what? The week opened with a euphoric Dow 53k party. Now a collapsed ceasefire, tanker

Iran is hitting commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump says the ceasefire is “over.” Crude flying, defense names bid. Watch for overnight strikes—this tape isn’t priced for a hot Gulf.