Monday, July 06, 2026. Iran peace deal gets ugly fast, NVDA swings with Nemotron, and Q2 earnings/Fed minutes week is here.

Geopolitics: US-Iran deal met with funeral fury — “Khamenei killers will not die a natural death.” Gaza and Ukraine ceasefires still fiction. Volatility is underpriced. Tech: $NVDA is done playing nice. Nemotron is the new weapon, Claude models live on Blackwell Ultra. Analysts see rebound, but the stock’s 2026 underperformance keeps it real. $AAPL $MSFT $AMD in the slipstream. Rates: 10Y at 4.48%, core PCE 3.41%, and NFCI loose at -0.50. Fed minutes and Waller this week. Financial conditions screaming “no brakes” while Q2 earnings take center stage. Rotation: The mega rotation call is back — biggest since post-pandemic says Devere CEO. Tech crowded, value/energy beckon. Earnings will either confirm the pivot or humiliate it. So what? NVDA’s Nemotron and Q2 prints decide if the AI trade reloads. Iran headlines can spike VIX at any minute. Fed on mute, liquidity abundant. Trade the news, not the narrative. Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70): $ALL — +1.7% vs Financial Services (6m

Geopolitics: US-Iran deal met with funeral fury — “Khamenei killers will not die a natural death.” Gaza and Ukraine ceasefires still fiction. Volatility is underpriced.