Wed Sep 30, 2026 — Asia opens with US 30Y yield above 5.6%, a fragile Xi-Trump trade truce, and Korea's Aug output/retail/capex all down. That's the triple overhang.

Geopolitics: US-China truce remains 'fragile' after Xi-Trump, and China just expanded an air force centre in Laos. The issue is markets are pricing détente while Beijing keeps building regional leverage. Watch China/HK exporters and Singapore/ASEAN supply chains as Japan-style China derisking spreads. Rates are the real wrecking ball: US 30Y tops 5.6%, highest since 2002, and oil retreating fails to stop JGB/US yields rising. This is interesting — it's not just inflation, it's fiscal/supply. HK property and Asia growth multiples feel it first. Tech/AI is the offset: global tech gains on Anthropic IPO optimism even with high oil and yields. Good signal if it holds — the AI issuance window reopening could keep HK/Japan semis bid into the open. Korea is messy: Aug industrial output, retail sales and facility investment all down, but Trump could announce S. Korea investment projects as early as today. FM Cho wants stronger S. Korea-China-Japan cooperation; N. Korea denies DMZ mine blast an

Geopolitics: US-China truce remains 'fragile' after Xi-Trump, and China just expanded an air force centre in Laos. The issue is markets are pricing détente while Beijing keeps building regional levera