Friday, September 25, 2026: The three stories that matter — US/China extend trade truce by two months, Trump presses Takaichi on the weak yen, and Nifty breaks below 4-month support with 23,000 now th

US-China two-month trade truce extension is a stay of execution, not a deal. It buys a summit window, but SCMP says rifts persist. Good for China/HK risk at the open, bad for anyone positioned for a quick resolution. Japan: Trump shared concerns over weak yen with Takaichi, while Suzuki aims to halve vehicle development time to stay on China's tail. Two sides of Japan's squeeze — currency politics and China competition. Weak yen keeps BOJ normalization hard; faster Suzuki execution helps margins, but risk is huge. Treasury rout threatens the popular EM carry trade as Citi pulls back. This is the underappreciated Asia risk: higher US yields plus weaker EM FX equals carry unwind. Korea, Singapore, and India FX are more exposed than their equity opens suggest. Nifty broke below 4-month support and 23,000 is the line. Below it, momentum funds de-risk; reclaim it and dip buyers show up. Friday expiry noise means the close matters more than the open. SEBI got over 3,000 comments on its closi

US-China two-month trade truce extension is a stay of execution, not a deal. It buys a summit window, but SCMP says rifts persist. Good for China/HK risk at the open, bad for anyone positioned for a q