Friday, September 18, 2026 — BOJ hiked to 1.25%, a 31-year high; Bessent cornered Japan on big spending; India's Sensex +200, Nifty >23,300 as oil cooled.

BOJ went to 1.25%, highest in 31 years, but yen was weak ahead of the decision — that's the tell. Market wanted more hawkish guidance. Watch JGB yields and carry trades. Bessent squeezing Japan on big spending is the underrated story. Not sure people appreciate how messy the JGB long end gets if Tokyo funds more stimulus while BOJ hikes. Good for yen vol, bad for global duration. India opens with Sensex +200, Nifty >23,300. Soft oil is doing the heavy lifting: rupee edged up on RBI support, import inflation pressure eases. Banks and OMCs should lead. Skyways Air Services +15% on Q1 results and dividend; GPT Infraprojects +9% on a Rs 484 crore RVNL railway order. Smallcap earnings/order momentum is alive, but liquidity is thin. BEL got Rs 648 crore orders since late August and is up 183% in 3 years; today is last day to buy Bharat Dynamics, Dixon Tech among 55 dividend names. Defence/PSU crowded, ex-date noise ahead. Korea's Lee ruled out reelection and said Seoul won't be involved in a

BOJ went to 1.25%, highest in 31 years, but yen was weak ahead of the decision — that's the tell. Market wanted more hawkish guidance. Watch JGB yields and carry trades.