WED SEP 16, 2026 — US 10Y yields at a 19-year high before the Fed; Klaas Knot tops the ECB succession list; US weighs buying warships from Japan and South Korea to counter China.

The 10-year at a 19-year high into today's Fed is the whole tape. Prediction markets put 87% odds on the upper bound staying above 3.75%, just 33.5% on Sep CPI >3.6%, and 23.5% on payrolls >125k. Not sure people appreciate how much that mix caps Asia multiples. US buying warships from Japan and South Korea is a real demand signal for Asian shipbuilders and defense. Nikkei and Kospi should get a bid, but watch China retaliation risk. This is interesting. Klaas Knot topping the Lagarde successor list matters for EUR rates and the dollar. If he's the front-runner, pricing shifts toward a more hawkish ECB reaction function. Watch European yields, then Asia FX. South Korea expands China routes and gives more flight rights to LCCs. Good signal for Korean LCCs and China travel demand. Bad signal for incumbent full-service carriers if capacity floods the route. Labor unrest spreading across Korea's steel and shipbuilding sectors is the issue. Shipyard order books are strong, but strikes hit ma

The 10-year at a 19-year high into today's Fed is the whole tape. Prediction markets put 87% odds on the upper bound staying above 3.75%, just 33.5% on Sep CPI >3.6%, and 23.5% on payrolls >125k. Not