Thursday, September 10, 2026 — Oil tops $100/bbl and lifts global yields; Sensex flat, Nifty near 23,450 on expiry day; US business confidence in China rebounds from record low.

Firms' confidence in China has soared on the Xi-Trump trade truce, per SCMP/Nikkei. Good signal for the HK/China open, but the issue is sentiment vs actual orders. Currency markets are subdued while oil >$100 pushes global yields up. ECB and US inflation are the next catalysts—watch EUR/USD and JGBs, not just equities. RBI is cutting a $115bn cash surplus via currency swaps—this is interesting because it drains liquidity without a rate hike, keeping the rupee steadier as oil shocks hit the import bill. Sensex flat, Nifty near 23,450 into expiry. Reliance, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Coal India, Hindustan Zinc in focus; oil >$100 is the overhang before the expiry print. Wheat falls on profit-taking despite Black Sea war headlines. Oil >$100 is the real pressure—not sure people appreciate how fast that feeds India CPI and yields. Japan to fund biofuel projects abroad for energy security at home—bad signal for oil dependence, good long-term story for Japanese trading houses and energy policy. Appl

Firms' confidence in China has soared on the Xi-Trump trade truce, per SCMP/Nikkei. Good signal for the HK/China open, but the issue is sentiment vs actual orders.