Wednesday, August 19, 2026 — Nifty falls for a 6th straight day as crude surges and CAS volatility rattles India; 30Y Treasury yields hit the highest since 2007 on Iran worries; US-South Korea halve U

Washington’s tech crackdown could test the fragile US-China truce — SCMP. The issue is, Asia’s chip and tech complex has been trading on détente hopes; any export-control escalation hits HK/China names first, then Tokyo and Seoul suppliers. Dollar drifts near multi-month lows as front-end Treasury yields ease, but the 30Y is at its highest since 2007 on Iran and term premium. The market is pricing a patient Fed alongside long-end inflation/geopolitical stress — Fed minutes later will sharpen that split. KXFED is 20.5% for fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the July 29 meeting; KXPAYROLLS 30.5% for >125k July jobs. Not much hawkish or hot-data premium here — soft minutes or payrolls would hit the dollar harder than equities. South Korea and the US sharply reduce joint drills after Trump’s order, but North Korea condemns them anyway. Good signal for peninsula de-escalation, bad signal that Pyongyang isn’t satisfied — KOSPI and KRW could stay defensive despite the smaller exercise

Washington’s tech crackdown could test the fragile US-China truce — SCMP. The issue is, Asia’s chip and tech complex has been trading on détente hopes; any export-control escalation hits HK/China names first, then Tokyo and Seoul suppliers.