Tuesday, August 04, 2026

India’s bank stocks slid ahead of tomorrow’s RBI decision — SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis all red. US Treasury flagged higher Q3 borrowing needs. And China’s military gap with the US is closing fast, per analyst Lyle Goldstein. Geopolitics: Taiwan’s KMT is accusing the government of failing on South China Sea claims. Not sure people appreciate how fast Beijing’s calculus could shift if Iran blows up — SCMP’s pointing to exactly that risk. Macro/Rates: The US cash flow outlook is weakening, forcing Treasury to borrow more in Q3. This is interesting because it tightens liquidity just as the market is pricing a 20.5% chance the Fed holds rates above 3.75% post-July meeting. India: The sell-off in HDFC Bank, ICICI, and Axis isn’t just pre-RBI jitters — crude is moving and the monsoon session is loaded with political noise. Watch the dividend deadline today: Vedanta Aluminium and Hyundai Motor among 25 stocks going ex-div. China/HK: Beijing’s NDRC is deep in talks with Indonesia on mariti

India’s bank stocks slid ahead of tomorrow’s RBI decision — SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis all red. US Treasury flagged higher Q3 borrowing needs. And China’s military gap with the US is closing fast, per analyst Lyle Goldstein.