MONDAY, JULY 20, 2026

Japan's GPIF in focus — speculation its JGB buying is capping yields and weighing on the yen. Taiwan president draws a hard line: "Democratic Taiwan must not become China's Taiwan." Kalshi markets pricing just 20.5% odds the Fed holds above 3.75% this month. Geopolitics: The Taiwan statement is the sharpest in months. Not just rhetoric — it's a signal Beijing's pressure campaign is escalating and Taipei is pushing back publicly. Markets in HK and Shanghai will feel this. Watch the TAIEX open. Macro/Rates: The GPIF story is the one to understand. If the world's biggest pension fund is absorbing JGB supply, it's artificially suppressing yields. That keeps the yen weak. The issue is, any hint of a shift in their strategy and the yen rips higher. Nikkei would not like that. Prediction markets: Only 20.5% chance the Fed funds rate stays above 3.75% after this month's meeting. That's a dovish bet. And only 30.5% odds payrolls print above 125k. The market is saying: rate cut is coming, and

Japan's GPIF in focus — speculation its JGB buying is capping yields and weighing on the yen. Taiwan president draws a hard line: "Democratic Taiwan must not become China's Taiwan." Kalshi markets pricing just 20.5% odds the Fed holds above 3.75% this month.