The long-term picture is intact. The stock is holding above a rising 200-day moving average — the market's long-term memory — and the 50-day average, where active money has been buying, sits above the 200-day, confirming the trend is healthy. The stock is also gaining ground versus the S&P 500, earning its place in the portfolio rather than simply riding the market higher. The first constructive entry zone is near the 50-day average at $14. A decisive close below the 200-day at $5 would break the long-term structure — that's where the thesis is wrong. Risk state is elevated: ATR 6.3% · 1Y DD 63% · 2 dist days · 21 gaps.