The long-term picture is intact. The stock is holding above a rising 200-day moving average — the market's long-term memory — and the 50-day average, where active money has been buying, sits above the 200-day, confirming the trend is healthy. The stock is roughly keeping pace with the S&P 500 — no relative edge either way. The first constructive entry zone is near the 50-day average at $2. A decisive close below the 200-day at $2 would break the long-term structure — that's where the thesis is wrong. Risk state is elevated: ATR 5.0% · 1Y DD 42% · 1 dist day · 23 gaps.