Market Signals

Wednesday, July 01, 2026 | Iran peace talks stall, Big Tech sheds $2.3T, US debt leaps $3.1T post-BBB Act

Wednesday July 01, 2026 — South Korean exports hit a monthly record on booming AI chip demand. Qualcomm drops a chip ditching HBM to challenge Nvidia’

CHINA'S ETHNIC LAW WITH GLOBAL REACH DRAWS BACKLASH, FROM JAPAN TO EUROPE - NIKKEI

EU E-TRUCK SECTOR SKEPTICAL ABOUT CATL-OCTOPUS BATTERY-SWAPPING PLAN - NIKKEI

QUALCOMM CHALLENGES NVIDIA'S AI GRIP WITH CHIP THAT DITCHES HBM - NIKKEI

📊 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.51 bp (-0bp)

Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Dow closes above 52k for the first time as the US-Iran truce holds. AI boom seen powering 22% S&P 500 earnings growth this qua

Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Dow closes above 52,000 for the first time as the US-Iran truce holds; AI boom projected to power 22% S&P 500 EPS growth; the

📊 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: 0.28 bp (-0bp)

APPLE IPHONE 18 PRO SECRETS LEAKED IN TATA ELECTRONICS HACK: WHAT WE KNOW - ALJAZEERA

Tuesday, June 30, 2026: South China Sea shadowing heats up; Iran plays Hormuz card ahead of Doha talks; Alibaba and Tencent drop DC lobbyists to compl

Monday, June 29, 2026: US-Iran truce on the brink after fresh Hormuz strikes. NVDA maps a $1T opportunity beyond GPUs. PBOC surprises with new overnig

Mon June 29, 2026. US-Iran truce unraveling after fresh Strait of Hormuz strikes. Fed rate hike bets jump, gold notches 4th weekly loss. Nvidia buildi

SUPREME COURT REJECTS TRUMP'S PUSH TO TOSS $5 MILLION VERDICT IN E. JEAN CARROLL SEXUAL ABUSE CASE - PBS

SUDAN SAYS CHINA HAS WAIVED $50M LOAN: WHAT’S IN IT FOR KHARTOUM, BEIJING? - ALJAZEERA

Monday, June 29, 2026 — Trump’s Iran sanctions U-turn jolts oil. Takaichi’s approval hits 68% locking Japan’s political trade. South Korea tees up mas

ETFs and DATs are selling, Fed is arguably going to start a hiking cycle. A -75% is 30k. What prevents that? — via @sidprabhu

Tech Stock Funds See Record Outflows as Bonds Get Inflows: BofA

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Few people realize you can get on some of the most stunning, crystal-clear, spring-fed lakes anywhere in the world for around $300K right here in the

Trump says Iran violated ceasefire agreement by striking cargo ship, drone attacks: CNBC — via @SJosephBurns

FED "MUCH LESS CONSEQUENTIAL IN THE GREAT FISCAL ERA" — @stevehou

The even wilder volatility of Asian markets this week will push two issues to the analytical radar screen:

📊 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.56 bp (+0bp)

Friday, June 26, 2026

So fantastic to have @gnoble79 on @NTLiveMedia this week. Here are his thoughts on commodities (hint: bullish).

THE FED'S NEEL KASHKARI IS NOW PENCILING IN AN INTEREST RATE HIKE THIS YEAR — via QZ

Friday June 26, 2026 — Iran violated the ceasefire with drone attacks on Strait of Hormuz ships, chip-crunch contagion slams AAPL and MSFT, and Kashka

June 25: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating #BEAdata in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and Atlanta Fed:

Had a lovely visit with @sam_vadas and the folks at @SchwabNetwork today to discuss the risks of a possible Fed hiking campaign. — via @briangobosox

My computer in 1998

Friday, June 26, 2026: SoftBank -12% on OpenAI IPO delay fears. Strait of Hormuz ship struck, supertankers halt

My interpretation of pulling a “Greenspan” today would be looking at all esoteric microdata to figure out what is mismeasured —because a lot is mismea

Must read Crunchbase interview with ex-Meta CTO and now VC, Mike Schroepfer (link in comment):

📊 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.56 bp (-0bp)

Thursday, June 25, 2026. Chip-crunch contagion tanks AAPL and MSFT. Iran peace talks suddenly real—Rubio vows US won’t bend. Bessent cheers a Fed rese

📊 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: 0.3 bp (-0bp)

Thursday, June 25, 2026. Iran peace talks: Trump claims big concessions but Rubio scrambles to reassure Gulf allies. NVDA stalls at $200 as it overtak

Rates around the world remain in a bear market (likely a structural one), and both the ECB and BoJ tightened last week. The Fed model remains a left t

WISDOMTREE U.S. CORPORATE BOND FUND DECLARES MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF $0.1750 — via SEEKINGALPHA

Adjusted for ISM methodology, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to 53.3 in June … still firmly in expansion after spending years oscillating be

Thursday, June 25, 2026 — Asia chops on US-Iran war fears, China macro misses, and AI IP war hitting BABA

Wednesday, June 24, 2026 — Iran ceasefire teeters on nuclear inspection row; Nvidia stalls at $200 dragging semis lower; FedEx crushes Q4.

US PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY CONCLUDES HANTAVIRUS RESPONSE AS OUTBREAK EASES — via ALJAZEERA

📊 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.65 bp (-0bp)

📊 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: 0.34 bp (+0bp)

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Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Iran ceasefire momentum builds, semis drag tech, FDX beats.

June Richmond Fed Manufacturing index down to +4 vs. +8 est. & +13 prior … shipments and new orders remained positive but ticked down from prior month

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