Political Betting Slumps On Prediction Markets As Crypto And Sports Boom

What happened: Political betting on prediction markets has slumped even as sports and crypto betting surged, with election turnover on Kalshi roughly unchanged in the final week before the midterms versus the same period Why it matters: Bloomberg called limited midterm trading interest a problem for prediction markets. Koleman Strumpf said the platforms need to prove to investors they have another business and to regulators and judges that the socially valuable part of prediction markets matters. A separate report found liquidity so low that a few thousand dollars could move forecasts.

Political betting on prediction markets has slumped even as sports and crypto betting surged, with election turnover on Kalshi roughly unchanged in the final week before the midterms versus the same period

Bloomberg called limited midterm trading interest a problem for prediction markets. Koleman Strumpf said the platforms need to prove to investors they have another business and to regulators and judges that the socially valuable part of prediction markets matters. A separate report found liquidity so low that a few thousand dollars could move forecasts.