Middle East crude exports are back near pre-war levels and Brent is down roughly 17% in five sessions, but transport costs have jumped from about $5/bbl pre-war to as much as $30/bbl on war insurance

What happened: Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to near pre-war levels, and weakening regional benchmarks suggest an oil glut may be forming even as transport costs stay high. Key numbers: Brent fell about 17% in five trading days to just above $91 per barrel. Why it matters: Producers are cutting official selling prices to win price-sensitive Asian buyers, while industry leaders warn rebuilding inventories could take up to two years. Analysts say the recent decline rests on hopes of a deal rather than evidence.

Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to near pre-war levels, and weakening regional benchmarks suggest an oil glut may be forming even as transport costs stay high.

Producers are cutting official selling prices to win price-sensitive Asian buyers, while industry leaders warn rebuilding inventories could take up to two years. Analysts say the recent decline rests on hopes of a deal rather than evidence.