Record retail sales contrast record-low sentiment, signaling macro divergence.
Context
What happened: US retail sales rose 0.8% month over month in the latest print, above the 0.3% expected, with gasoline station purchases up 6.4%. Control-group sales rose just 0.1%.
Key numbers: Retail sales +0.8% MoM vs +0.3% expected, +6.3% YoY. Gas station purchases +6.4%. Control group +0.1%.
Why it matters: BofA and UBS analysts say higher fuel costs are crowding out other purchases, with card data showing softening across home improvement, department stores, clothing, furniture, restaurants, groceries and online. Consumer sentiment sits at a record low.