The physical oil squeeze is unwinding fast: a key North Sea grade went from a $20+ premium to Dated Brent to a $1.40 discount, while Dated's premium over ICE futures collapsed from about $30 to $3.70

What happened: Physical crude markets flipped from a bidding war to a fire sale as rebounding Persian Gulf exports pushed cargo premiums down across the Middle East, North Sea and West Africa. Key numbers: North Sea grade went from over $20 premium to Dated Brent to a $1.40 discount. Why it matters: Goldman trader Peter Hackworth said the physical collapse "does NOT suggest a tight market," while Goldman raised its Dec26 Brent forecast to $105 from $90, attributing most of October's rally to a roughly $27 risk premium rather than supply and demand.

Physical crude markets flipped from a bidding war to a fire sale as rebounding Persian Gulf exports pushed cargo premiums down across the Middle East, North Sea and West Africa.

Goldman trader Peter Hackworth said the physical collapse "does NOT suggest a tight market," while Goldman raised its Dec26 Brent forecast to $105 from $90, attributing most of October's rally to a roughly $27 risk premium rather than supply and demand.