SpaceX earnings preview highlights $125 billion equity valuation and 83-cent credit pricing.
Context
What happened: SpaceX (SPCX) reports Q2 after the close, a day ahead of Tesla. Deutsche Bank expects an in-line quarter and raised its 2027 forecasts to $125 billion in revenue and $84 billion in EBITDA.
Key numbers: Q3 revenue modeled at $12.6 billion (+127% YoY), EBITDA over $6.6 billion, capex $19 billion, free cash flow burn $14 billion.
Why it matters: Equity analysts are pricing upside while the bond market is pricing the bill: Deutsche's 2027 numbers rest on more than $200 billion in capex, and its own model shows capex exceeding EBITDA by about $250 billion across three years.