Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing report pointed to a remarkably resilient U.S. economy.

The headline ISM index rose to 55.6, its highest level in more than four years. The Employment Index climbed above 50 for the first time since September 2023, while pricing pressures remained substantial, with the Prices Paid Index still above 70. It therefore seems reasonable to assume that, after July's split decision (three FOMC members voted for a rate hike), the odds of another Fed hike later this year ha — via @jsblokland

ISM at 55.6, four-year high, employment above 50 first since