My view on a rate hike at the July FOMC.

1. Inflation is NOT dead 2. Killing inflation will not occur by tweaking short term rates 25-50bp it requires asset market correction and not just a V 10% sell off with a bounce. 3. Balance sheet and QRA are the right tools. And both Warsh and Bessent know this. (So does the conspiracy overlord Druck) 4. The inflation data was ice cold and imho allows substantial cover for another month of pause 5. Oil up is a tightening which slows the economy and do — via @dampedspring

High score due to specific FOMC rate hike view, inflation stance, and policy tool critique.