If Warsh hikes, this will be the tactical rationale: Sept is inevitable, so might as well get on with it.

But in the absence of forward guidance, he can’t control expectations, particularly given that the move would be inconsistent with the Fed’s supposed data-dependence. The market will immediately price in 75-100, assuming the Fed wants to hit the economic brakes. Warsh could start his chairmanship with a market crash. The risk of spiraling expectations creating nasty market feedback woul — via @briangobosox

Warsh hike speculation, inevitable September, absent forward guidance, and data-dependence inconsistency trigger systemi