Core PCE removes food and energy (oil) and is the Fed's favorite inflation measure.

It is 80 bps higher than in April 2025. The post-COVID average and std dev (blue) "step-functioned" higher than the previous two cycles (red and green). We are in a new higher inflation regime post-COVID. The era of sub-2% inflation ended six years ago; that was the previous cycle. So, in this environment, don't be surprised that when the Fed cuts rates, the 30-year yield goes straight up and is a few basis — via @biancoresearch

Core PCE, the Fed's key gauge, up 80 bps from April 2025 signals a new higher inflation regime.