WHEN THE CONFLICT IN IRAN BEGAN IN LATE FEBRUARY, IT WAS WIDELY EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY A FEW WEEKS. FOUR MONTHS LATER, WE CAN SEE THAT THE 12-MONTH FORWARD CONTRACT REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHS, WHILE INVENT

WHEN THE CONFLICT IN IRAN BEGAN IN LATE FEBRUARY, IT WAS WIDELY EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY A FEW WEEKS. FOUR MONTHS LATER, WE CAN SEE THAT THE 12-MONTH FORWARD CONTRACT REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHS, WHILE INVENTORIES ARE FALLING. WITH NO CLEAR OFFRAMP, IT’S A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE MARKET HAS FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON THE RIGHT TAIL. — VIA @TIMMERFIDELITY

Conflict duration exceeds expectations, with forward contracts near highs and falling inventories.