WE KNOW THAT INFLATION IS LESS DRIVEN BY COMMODITY PRICES THAN IN THE PAST, BUT THE CHART BELOW SHOWS THAT GOODS INFLATION STILL MATTERS. WHEN THE 5-YEAR CAGR OF THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY SPOT INDEX IS

ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE IT’S IMPORTANT TO CELEBRATE THE EPIC EARNINGS CYCLE WE ARE IN, WE SHOULDN’T FORGET THE VALUATION RISKS IF BONDS ENTER THE 5% DANGER ZONE AND THE FED MODEL TAKES ITS REVENGE. PRICE IS AT

Commodity index CAGR above inflation rate historically pulls CPI higher, signaling persistent goods inflation risk.