Antero Resources: Liquids Pricing Strength Offsets Natural Gas Weakness

What happened: Antero Resources ($AR) curtailed production in Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 because of weaker in-basin natural gas prices, with wider than expected differentials. Key numbers: 2H 2026 natural gas differentials may end up around 30 to 40. The author estimates Q4 realized price 20% higher per Mcfe than Q3. Why it matters: Hedges plus stronger liquids prices should help realized prices rebound in Q4, and liquids prices remain relatively strong in 2027 based on strip prices, though between Q3 and Q4 2026 levels.

Antero Resources ($AR) curtailed production in Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 because of weaker in-basin natural gas prices, with wider than expected differentials.

Hedges plus stronger liquids prices should help realized prices rebound in Q4, and liquids prices remain relatively strong in 2027 based on strip prices, though between Q3 and Q4 2026 levels.