Oil Update - October 2026

What happened: The author raised the midpoint of his WTI oil price range by $15 per barrel for October, absent kinetic conflict or a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Key numbers: WTI range of $97.50 to $112.50 per barrel for October. Midpoint raised by $15 per barrel. US midterm elections on November 3. Why it matters: Polymarket predictions the author monitors suggest new kinetic activity during November is more likely than not, and the blockade is more likely than not to last through November. Coverage: 3 outlets in 24h

The author raised the midpoint of his WTI oil price range by $15 per barrel for October, absent kinetic conflict or a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Polymarket predictions the author monitors suggest new kinetic activity during November is more likely than not, and the blockade is more likely than not to last through November.